The Russians are prepared to let the United States have a free hand against Iran and not pose any challenges while U.S. forces are tied down in Iraq. But there is a price and it will be high.
Had al Qaeda periodically attacked the United States after 9/11, the ongoing sense of crisis would not have dissipated. But since no attack occurred, the actions and policies that appeared reasonable and proportionate in 2001 began to appear paranoid and excessive.
Statements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and U.S. President George W. Bush on Aug. 28 show how rapidly the thinking in Tehran is evolving in response to Iranian perceptions of a pending U.S. withdrawal from Iraq -- and how the Bush administration is shifting its focus from the Sunni threat to both the Sunni and Shiite threats.
In the international context, the power of a lame duck president depends on the options he has militarily. Foreign powers do not mess with American presidents, no matter how lame one might be, as long as the president retains military options.
The subprime crisis is worth analysis in its own right, though it also gives us the opportunity to discuss our own approach to economic issues. Stratfor views the world through the prism of geopolitics. In geopolitics, there is no such thing as separating a country’s economy from its national security or its political interests.
