The subprime crisis is worth analysis in its own right, though it also gives us the opportunity to discuss our own approach to economic issues. Stratfor views the world through the prism of geopolitics. In geopolitics, there is no such thing as separating a country’s economy from its national security or its political interests.

For the first time, the two distinct Palestinian territories — the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — no longer are under a single Palestinian authority.

What is the value of naval power in a world in which naval battles are not fought?

The European Union celebrated the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome on March 25. To mark the event, 27 heads of government gathered in Berlin, ostensibly to sign a declaration reaffirming the union’s values and outlining future goals. Disputes over the document’s text, however, proved so divisive that, in order to avoid embarrassing refusals, the leaders were not even asked to sign it. Meanwhile, the ceremonies were so dull that many officials wandered off into the streets of Berlin well before they concluded.

The United States has now spent four years fighting in Iraq. Those who planned the conflict never expected this outcome. Indeed, it could be argued that this outcome represents not only miscalculation but also a strategic defeat for the United States. The best that can be said about the war at the moment is that it is a strategic stalemate, which is an undesired outcome for the Americans. The worst that can be said is that the United States has failed to meet its strategic objectives and that failure represents defeat.

By Peter Zeihan

Since it is clear that the war will continue regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, it is time to focus on the single most important strategic issue facing the United States: the size and composition of the U.S. armed forces. Unless jihadist opposition throughout the Islamic world ends suddenly, which is unlikely, the war will continue for several years. The U.S. military, however, is in no position to continue fighting the war with current forces — particularly Army and Marine forces. Therefore, something has to give. To be more precise, there will be a massive increase in the size of the U.S. military in 2005.

During the two debates held so far, we have learned three things. First, that George W. Bush never made a mistake. Second, that John Kerry would never have made any of the mistakes Bush made, and that he does not intend to make any mistakes in the future. Third, and most important, that there is precious little substantial disagreement between the two candidates on war strategy going forward. Whatever Kerry has had to say about Bush’s execution of the war in the past, he has made it clear that he will continue what Bush calls the “War on Terror” and that he will not abandon the war in Iraq.

For the first time in history, oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange breached the $50 a barrel barrier on the back of the threat of supply disruptions in Nigeria, a new expatriate assassination in Saudi Arabia and leftover damage from Hurricane Ivan.

Last week, we analyzed the U.S. presidential elections in terms of foreign expectations, merely touching on the internal dynamics of the election. This week, it is time to bite the bullet and analyze the U.S. election as we would analyze any other — on its own terms.