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Since it is clear that the war will continue regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, it is time to focus on the single most important strategic issue facing the United States: the size and composition of the U.S. armed forces. Unless jihadist opposition throughout the Islamic world ends suddenly, which is unlikely, the war will continue for several years. The U.S. military, however, is in no position to continue fighting the war with current forces — particularly Army and Marine forces. Therefore, something has to give. To be more precise, there will be a massive increase in the size of the U.S. military in 2005.

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During the two debates held so far, we have learned three things. First, that George W. Bush never made a mistake. Second, that John Kerry would never have made any of the mistakes Bush made, and that he does not intend to make any mistakes in the future. Third, and most important, that there is precious little substantial disagreement between the two candidates on war strategy going forward. Whatever Kerry has had to say about Bush’s execution of the war in the past, he has made it clear that he will continue what Bush calls the “War on Terror” and that he will not abandon the war in Iraq.

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For the first time in history, oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange breached the $50 a barrel barrier on the back of the threat of supply disruptions in Nigeria, a new expatriate assassination in Saudi Arabia and leftover damage from Hurricane Ivan.

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Last week, we analyzed the U.S. presidential elections in terms of foreign expectations, merely touching on the internal dynamics of the election. This week, it is time to bite the bullet and analyze the U.S. election as we would analyze any other — on its own terms.

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