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Saudi Arabia: A Balancing Act

The Saudi government continues to try to regain its footing after shifting relations with the United States brought on by the Sept. 11 attacks and, more concretely, the war in Iraq. The government faces internal pressures from al Qaeda-related militants and also from broader sectors of Saudi society, while external pressures from the United States continue. Several incidents this week exemplify this ongoing balancing act by Riyadh: the awarding of natural gas exploration contracts to four non-U.S. firms, the withdrawal of diplomatic recognition by the United States for 16 Saudis attached to the Saudi Embassy in Washington and the deadly shoot-out with militants in Riyadh on Jan. 29.

Jan 30, 2004 | 17:59 GMT FREE

Beyond Iraq

The Bush Administration never saw the war in Iraq as either a stand-alone operation or as distinct from the generalized war on the Islamist movement that al Qaeda was part of. As clumsy and, at times, devious as the public presentation of the war was, it had a clear logic. Despite ongoing tactical problems in and around Baghdad, the broad strategic goals of the Iraq campaign are being realized. Therefore, the question now is: What will the next stage of the U.S.-Islamist war look like?

Jan 21, 2004 | 17:59 GMT FREE

Bin Laden Tape: Honesty and Gloom

The release of a new tape by Osama bin Laden is always an important event. The most recent one is particularly important because of the tone it takes. It is far from resigned, but it is a gloomy analysis of al Qaeda’s situation, focusing on the failure of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to resist the United States. Al Qaeda has a great deal to be gloomy about. Events were very much moving in its favor since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. But December was a terrible month for al Qaeda: The United States began to gain control over the insurrection, and the diplomatic situation in the region began to shift in the U.S. favor. Al Qaeda has a problem and is searching for a solution.

Jan 7, 2004 | 17:45 GMT FREE

“Mad Cow” in America: Beyond Blaming Canada

On Dec. 22, inspectors detected a case of “mad cow” disease in Washington state. Although the health issues are hardly inconsequential, they are dwarfed by the impact the case will have on U.S.-Canadian relations and global trade negotiations.

Dec 30, 2003 | 17:34 GMT FREE

Saddam Hussein and the Dollar War

The capture of Saddam Hussein is an intelligence success for the United States. It represents a massive effort to improve U.S. intelligence capabilities in Iraq following a period of intelligence failure. Hussein’s capture, therefore, is important not only in itself or in its implications for the guerrillas, but also because it represents a massive and rapid improvement in U.S. intelligence capabilities. It demonstrates that poor intelligence is not inherent in U.S. guerrilla war-fighting; the United States overcame it by identifying the central weaknesses of its opponents. In this case, the central weakness was money — and this was not only a financial weakness, but also a cultural one.

Dec 18, 2003 | 11:49 GMT FREE

The Mystery of Marina Oswald

With the passing of the 40th anniversary of the JFK assassination, Stratfor pauses to consider one of the less-examined aspects of the case: Marina Oswald. Her connections to the Soviet intelligence apparatus and odd marriage to Lee Harvey Oswald are seldom factored into any theories surrounding the assassination. However, the facts of the case make it clear that the Soviet government wanted Marina Prusakova and Oswald together in the United States.

Nov 24, 2003 | 15:15 GMT FREE

The Unnoticed Alignment: Iran and the United States in Iraq

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has quietly announced his recognition of the Iraqi Governing Council and acceptance of the U.S. timeline on the transfer of power in Iraq. The announcement speaks to a partnership that will direct the future course of Iraq. The alliance is of direct short-term benefit to both countries: The United States gains a partner to help combat Sunni insurgents, and Iran will be able to mitigate the long-standing threat on its western border. What is most notable is that, though there has been no secrecy involved, the partnership has emerged completely below the global media’s radar.

Nov 19, 2003 | 16:25 GMT FREE

The Iraq Dilemma: Frying Pan or Fire?

U.S. President George W. Bush has hastily convened his war council to decide strategies for the next phase of operations in Iraq. What first must be assessed are the nature, intent and capabilities of the Iraqi guerrilla forces. Imperfect intelligence about this might force the Bush administration to implement strategies based on worst-case-scenario assumptions.

Nov 12, 2003 | 17:58 GMT FREE

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