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Pakistan ended 2007 with the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 27. Though it is not clear who ultimately ordered the assassination or what they hoped to achieve, the result injected a huge amount of passion and uncertainty into a situation that already stretched the definition of “chaotic.”
In 2008 Stratfor expects the Pakistani army — which is to say, the Pakistani state — to hold together, but just. Political power within the army and governing institutions has become more diffuse as President Pervez Musharraf’s grip has slackened, and Bhutto’s assassination has upended many agreements to share power. With those deals up in the air, Pakistan’s many factions — within and beyond the military — are now competing with each other with few established points of reference.
Yet most of this is simply the sound and fury of internal maneuvering; ultimately, military commanders know that they are the true rulers of Pakistan no matter what elections produce and realize that, should they fall too deeply into infighting, they are only hurting themselves. It will likely take months for this realization to sink in — although general elections currently scheduled for Feb. 18 will serve as an excellent splash of cold water — and the political chaos of 2008 will make 2007 seem orderly in comparison. The United States, of course, stands ready to back nearly whatever actions the military deems necessary to ensure order — if for no other reason than to ensure that the Pakistani military continues to act against the jihadists.
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