Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
By Bart Mongoven
Chinese regulators said June 27 they have shut down more than 180 food processing plants over the past six months for using illegal fillers in food products. The announcement follows a series of incidents in which Chinese processors exported unsafe consumable goods, including pet food and toothpaste -- products that reached store shelves in the United States.
The investigation into the most inflammatory of the incidents, the deadly contamination of pet food with the plasticizer melamine, led to the discovery that excessive amounts of melamine and other similar chemicals are common additives in Chinese food manufacturing. Meanwhile, more than 200 Chinese food shipments have been turned away from the U.S. market in the past year because federal officials considered them contaminated.
As a result of the growing concern among Americans over the potential health risks of food from China, attention is turning to the most influential regulator of food safety in the United States. This is not the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), nor is it the Department of Agriculture (USDA). In fact, it is not a government agency at all. It is retailers -- the end-of-the-line sellers who have learned by experience that consumers will blame them if something goes wrong. In the long term, though, the uproar over tainted Chinese products likely will focus public attention on the little-known body that establishes global food safety standards: the Codex Alimentarius Commission. Known as Codex, it is a joint project of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization.
The timing of the contamination incidents could not be worse for Beijing. First, the United States and China are involved in a low-grade trade spat over agriculture imports, with the United States only recently making a concession on the importation of Chinese processed chickens. Meanwhile, China still complains that its products are unfairly turned back at the border and, four years after the U.S. mad cow scare, China continues to ban U.S. beef.
Moreover, the incidents have increased consumer product companies' skittishness about importing food from China just as the United States is beginning to emerge as a major buyer of Chinese foods. They also come at a crucial time in the debate over "country-of-origin" labeling in the United States, and during a period in which retailers are beginning to grow accustomed to their role as the primary food-safety enforcer in the United States.
Regardless of whether the events of the last six months lead to an accelerated phase-in of country-of-origin labeling in the United States (which would force food companies to label fresh meat from China), they will result in dramatic changes in Chinese food manufacturing. Consumer product companies, under pressure from retailers, will demand Chinese government guarantees that the country's food exports are produced in keeping with the minimum recognized international standards.
A likely beneficiary of this hot-button issue is Codex, which not only sets those standards, but also has made increasing its reach into developing countries a prime objective. As China grasps for ways to assure its trading partners and the global food industry that its products can be trusted, working with Codex is emerging as a prominent element of its strategy.
The Problem of Volume
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |
