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The Somalian government’s reconciliation conference ended Aug. 30 in Mogadishu, yielding contradictory reports on how helpful the conference was toward achieving reconciliation.

By contrast, a rival peace conference to be held the weekend of Sept. 1 in Eritrea will produce one certainty: Leading Somalian Islamists will threaten Ethiopia once more, which will force Addis Ababa to continue its intervention in Somalia in order to pre-empt that threat.

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