Longtime President Emomali Rakhmon is facing challenges from inside the country and out.
Despite Tashkent's growing independence, the two countries still have reasons to cooperate.
Financial and political constraints will make it harder for many governments to maintain balance in the coming months.
This is an internal Stratfor document listing significant meetings and events for the next week.
Despite its domestic concerns about radical Islam, Moscow could establish ties with a prominent Tajik Islamist group.
Moscow is planning to strengthen military and economic partnerships with its key former Soviet satellites.
The first real move toward a rail line linking China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan has been made, but many obstacles remain.
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan could face a bleak water future even without the proposed upriver dams.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hope to build new hydropower dams, which could increase tensions with downriver countries.
Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon is likely visiting Gorno-Badakhshan province to address regional security and political issues.