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Several events -- including stepped-up counterterrorism training in Djibouti, apparent al Qaeda activity in Sudan and U.S. President George W. Bush's upcoming visit to Uganda -- along with information from Pentagon sources indicate that the United States is preparing for a covert counterterrorism offensive, likely in Sudan.
Such an offensive would be part of a larger summer push by Washington to shut down al Qaeda cells in Africa and elsewhere before they have an opportunity to launch attacks on U.S. soil or against American assets abroad. If there are plans for an operation in the Horn of Africa, they could resonate throughout the continent and redefine the precarious working relationship between Khartoum and Washington.
Sudan is a prime locale for al Qaeda operations: Not only is the country riven by civil war, but a large faction of the Arab Muslim north is radicalized and has ties to militant organizations. The east African state is largely undeveloped and has plenty of inaccessible areas that are suitable for militant training bases. Moreover, al Qaeda has longstanding ties with factions of the government, and Osama bin Laden has both lived in the country and reportedly spent millions building roads and other infrastructure to facilitate his organization's operations there.
Although the government in Khartoum is sharing intelligence with the United States, tensions with Washington remain. Moreover, Khartoum does not have complete control over even the Arab north, and al Qaeda has established ties with fundamentalist factions within the country.
Several recent events suggest that Washington is planning a counterterrorism operation in the near future, and western Sudan is likely the bulls-eye U.S. forces are targeting.
Prepping in Djibouti
Pentagon sources tell Stratfor that the U.S. military is gearing up for an operation in Sudan. The most likely base for such operations would be Djibouti, which in May became the home of the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa -- a force of approximately 1,500 troops that is responsible for counterterrorism efforts in the Horn, eastern Africa and neighboring Yemen.
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