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Conditions in Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, have deteriorated dramatically since President Jean Bertrand Aristide fled into forced exile in February aboard an aircraft supplied by the U.S. government. Moreover, the situation likely will grow much worse in the coming months, putting more pressure on many Haitians either to resort to violence or to flee the country.
However, Haitians have limited options in terms of escape. Massive departures by sea aboard rickety wooden rafts and boats are not likely, since Haiti is almost completely deforested. This means many Haitians may try to cross the mountainous border into the Dominican Republic, which will do everything in its power to block a massive Haitian exodus that could have socially and politically destabilizing consequences for Santo Domingo.
The U.S.-backed interim government of Prime Minister Gerard Latortue has been remarkably inept and so far has failed to win much popular support. The international peacekeeping force that took control of the country's security in June 2004 has deployed slightly more than 2,000 troops to date, although the U.N. mandate calls for a force of 6,700 troops. International aid is barely trickling into the country. Hurricanes have left nearly 300,000 Haitians homeless and gunmen loyal to Aristide are murdering civilians at will in an effort to destabilize Haiti ahead of new elections planned for 2005.
Since Sept. 30, pro-Aristide gunmen have killed nearly 50 people, including 17 on Oct. 11 alone. At least nine Haitian police officials have been executed and two peacekeepers -- a Brazilian and an Argentine -- have been wounded in gunfights with armed rebels that Latortue praised as heroes when they ousted Aristide. Many of those rebels have since turned against Latortue as their leaders seek to advance personal political ambitions and reconstitute the army, which was disbanded in 1995.
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