PC16: Sixteen Countries Quietly Filling Void Left By Declining China
July 30th, 2013 – Austin, TX – China’s economic problems have opened the door for 16 disparate countries, from Ethiopia and Mexico to Indonesia and Peru, to become global drivers of manufacturing growth, according to a new report issued today by Stratfor, a leading geopolitical intelligence firm. As early as January 2000, Stratfor forecast the slowdown and shift of the Chinese economy and the firm asserts that China is now at the limits of its low wage, high growth phase and that the “The Post-China 16” or “PC16” will succeed it.
The PC16 by region:
- Indian Ocean Basin - Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Myanmar
- South China Sea periphery - Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam
- Latin America - Dominican Republic, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru
Some of the countries on the list seem unlikely successors to an economic powerhouse like China, while others have been identified in reports by other firms. The list’s uniqueness is in its reliance on both quantitative and qualitative measurements and its geopolitical approach – meaning that it accounts for factors that purely economic or statistical models miss, such as cycles dictated by a country’s geography, conflict zones and political stability, demographics, diversity of natural resources, and infrastructure.
“Many of these countries might seem like long-shots but consider Japan’s meteoric rise after World War II or China’s after decades of Maoist chaos.” George Friedman, Stratfor’s Founder and Chairman explained. “If I would have told you in 1975 that China would be the second-largest economy in the world by the turn of the century, you’d have thought I was insane.”
Read George Friedman’s take on:
Stratfor has honed its approach during more than 16 years of accurate forecasting and in-depth analysis for the world’s leading financial services firms, Fortune 500 companies and individual subscribers. For more information or to purchase Stratfor’s full report on the PC16: http://info.stratfor.com/pc16
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