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By Fred Burton
The world continues to be fascinated by the latest audiotape from Osama bin Laden. The statements he makes are certainly interesting: simultaneously threatening more attacks against the United States and offering a truce. But even more interesting, in our view, is the context in which the newest recording was released: amid a rash of other releases attributed to top al Qaeda leaders -- including a recording in which Ayman al-Zawahiri reads poetry praising mujahideen.
If the tapes are authentic, they are of course noteworthy in several ways. In addition to the obvious -- the continued survival of bin Laden, who had not been seen or heard from since December 2004 -- the level of activity featuring al-Zawahiri is the highest it has been since January 2003. Though he has issued statements at fairly regular intervals during the past year, al-Zawahiri has emerged three times this month: first on Jan. 6, then a day later (with an image of al-Zawahiri shown while "Azzam the American" read a statement in English), and then again with the poetry reading Jan. 20. Under any circumstances, four appearances by top al Qaeda leaders in the span of a month is somewhat unusual.
In addition to these recordings, there is also the Jan. 13 Predator strike in a small Pakistani village that apparently killed four senior al Qaeda members. This strike has fascinated us for some time: Initially, it was thought to have caused the death of al-Zawahiri, who apparently had been invited to attend a dinner in the village but cancelled at the last minute. Considering the identities of those who actually were in attendance, logistical factors affecting the transport and release of al Qaeda recordings and the subsequent surge in airtime for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri, it is logical to assume a connection between the two sets of events.
Public attention has focused, with good reason, on bin Laden's statements and whether they signal a pending attack in the United States. In the tape recording, he says: "Operations are in preparation and you will see them in your own homeland as soon as they are ready, Allah willing." Though al Qaeda's tactical ability to carry out operations might often be called into question, and many planned strikes have been thwarted, any threat of this sort from the group's top leadership should always be taken seriously. Historically, al Qaeda always has attempted -- with some notable successes, such as the East Africa embassy bombings and other strikes -- to follow up on its threats.
All of which brings us back to the blow the United States struck so recently against al Qaeda in Pakistan, which is significant in many ways.
It was in the early hours of Jan. 13, following a dinner celebrating the holiday of Eid al-Adha, that Hellfire missiles rained down on a hut in Damadola, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas near the border with Afghanistan. Though al-Zawahiri apparently was not present at the time of the attack, the Pakistani government later revealed that four senior al Qaeda members -- identified as Abdul al-Maghribi, Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, Khalid Habib and Abu Obaidah al-Masri -- were killed, along with several villagers.
The identities of these four men, and the role they apparently played within al Qaeda, is key:
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