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In February 2004, four concurrent and curious statements came out of the Balkans. On Feb. 1, NATO proclaimed its Kosovo operations a success and a benchmark for future NATO missions. The next day, Serbian intelligence chief Momir Stojanovic said that Islamist militants -- including al Qaeda -- are actively operating in Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia. Stojanovic's claims were quickly denied by NATO, Serbian defense officials and Albanian and Macedonian officials. Stojanovic then went one step further, saying that not only are militant organizations active in these areas, but also that Serbian intelligence agents have been monitoring them for more than a year.
Whether Stojanovic's -- or NATO's -- assertions are accurate, they point to the possibility that militant organizations like al Qaeda increasingly see the Balkans as a potential launching pad for operations in Western Europe and beyond.
The Balkans have long been home to and fertile ground for Islamist organizations, due to a large Muslim population and regional instability. As recently as September 2003, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Richard Myers visited the region to reiterate the danger it posed. So why all the denial?
NATO has a vested interest in portraying its operations in Kosovo as a success story. The alliance cannot afford to be seen as a do-nothing occupation force, but it certainly does not have enough forces in the region to actively and decisively engage militant groups. NATO also is wary of the two solutions that would permit a wholesale withdrawal of forces: reintegrating Kosovo into Serbia, or allowing Kosovo to declare independence. If NATO officials admitted to a robust militant presence in the Balkans, the political backlash in the United States would be excruciating. The United States does not have the personnel to aggressively address militancy in the Balkans without reducing efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, both of which are higher political and military priorities. Returning to the Balkans also would be a tacit admission that the United States missed an opportunity to handle regional militants. So the United States -- and NATO by proxy -- seeks to downplay the extent to which these groups have infiltrated and are operating in the area.
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