Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Editor’s Note: This analysis is the last in a three-part series on Turkey’s geopolitical opportunities.
Emerging from a century of internal focus and relative isolation, a revitalized Turkey now faces a raft of opportunities for expansion on the world stage. But before Ankara can venture out into its brave new world, it must do three things. The first of these is to secure its internal political stability, and the second is to deal with the ambitions of its neighbors.
Turkey’s third imperative is to select an opportunity to focus on, and there certainly is no shortage of options. The menu includes Iran, the Caucasus, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Balkans and Iraq.
Iran
One-quarter of Iran’s population — the Azeri minority centered in the Tabriz region — is of Turkic descent. Therefore, the possibility of increasing Turkish power in this region beckons, because of the opportunity not only to break an eons-old rival but also to be able to tap a fifth column to do so.
The problems, however, are equally obvious. The manpower-heavy Iranian army is remarkably capable at quelling uprisings, and efforts to capitalize on the Azeris of Iran would be (accurately) perceived in Tehran as a direct assault on the Iranian state. Turkey is looking to expand its geopolitical influence, not to trigger a difficult war. It is better in the midterm to seek a truce with Iran somewhat similar to that with Greece, including a deal that would see some limited economic integration using natural gas as the tie that binds. After all, Turkey needs to maximize diversification of its energy sources so that it retains the option of moving against one supplier should a solid opportunity present itself. In time, that may well be Iran — but it is not at the present time.
The Caucasus
Turkey must engage the Caucasus, since the region abuts Turkish territory, but this is the sort of region in which empires are buried. The mountains of the Caucasus are difficult to penetrate, and their mix of often mutually hostile ethnicities ensures that other regional powers (Iran and Russia) can always check Turkish ambitions. Turkey will be scratching around in the Caucasus with ever-increasing frequency, but it will be for defensive reasons — not because it wants to or because it sees anything of particular value there.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |
