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Stratfor sources in Azerbaijan have said that Turkey plans to forge an energy relationship with Armenia — one involving Azerbaijan.
Turkey and Armenia have been feeling each other out for some time. In June, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian accepted Ankara’s request to establish a joint committee of historians to assess ways to resolve extant bilateral disagreements. In July, back-channel bilateral negotiations were held in Geneva, and then Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited the border town of Ani, the old Armenian capital, to launch renovation work of the tourist site under the aegis of UNESCO. Gul’s Sept. 5 visit to Armenia was the culmination of months of extensive behind-the-scenes preparations, which entailed careful moves by Ankara meant to get Yerevan to agree to talk.
The next step, Stratfor sources say, will be for the Turkish, Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers to meet — likely on the sidelines of this year’s U.N. General Assembly session, which begins Sept. 16, with the possibility of U.S. involvement. Azerbaijan is very keen on knowing Armenia’s intentions before Baku heads into its Oct. 15 presidential elections. The Turkish side is optimistic that the Armenian-Azeri dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region can be settled provided Yerevan has enough incentives.
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