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Tensions erupted into open conflict Aug. 8 in Georgia’s separatist region of South Ossetia, where the Georgian military cracked down on the region’s major city of Tskhinvali. Russian armor has now carved out a position in the city, and as it advances, Georgian troops have no option but to retreat — leaving Moscow the ultimate arbiter of the outcome of the territorial dispute. Wherever the Russian military decides to station its forces will become the de facto boundary in the aftermath of the conflict.
Former Soviet Union countries are already reassessing their relations with Russia in light of the events in Georgia, especially NATO members that hoped they could lie low and avoid getting entangled. But as Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has plainly stated, Russia has always ensured stability in the Caucasus and will continue to do so. One of Russia’s geopolitical imperatives is to secure its periphery, including the mountainous slice of land between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. This means Moscow alone decides the details of how stability in the region will be sustained. The Russians will choose among four basic templates in drawing the new map for Georgia and South Ossetia.
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