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As Russia continues its struggle to define its ability to act outside of its own borders and reclaim its periphery, Stratfor has long watched Georgia and its two secessionist regions as the most likely conflict point Moscow would start with. As the noise between Russia and Georgia continues escalating over the Georgian secessionist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, some interesting shifts and opportunities have arisen that could lead both sides to push for the situation to finally come to a head.

First there is the typical noise between both sides:

• Georgia said April 21 that the Russian air force shot down a Georgian unmanned aerial vehicle.
• Russia’s State Duma held talks April 25 on recognizing Georgia’s two secessionist regions’ independence from Tbilisi.
• One of Georgia’s breakaway regions, Abkhazia, said April 28 that it is expanding its military agreements with Russia, though no details were given.
• Georgia announced April 29 that it is ceasing its talks over Russia’s bid for World Trade Organization membership — something Tbilisi vetoed in 2006.

However, this sort of noise and diplomatic threats have been going on between Moscow and Tbilisi since 1993, with the breakpoint that could lead to an actual open conflict always seemingly near. Neither Georgia nor Russia has made the move yet to actually turn this ongoing tit-for-tat into something more; both sides have been aching to escalate the conflict, but either domestic problems, international constraints or bad timing has held them back.

Georgian Troop Movements, Russian Threats

But while the diplomatic moves and rhetoric rise, each side is taking a few actual steps that signal something more concrete is happening. During the past week, Georgia has moved 1,500 personnel — a mixture of soldiers and police — up against Abkhazia’s Kodori Gorge, one of the areas that has long been a conflict point among Georgia, Abkhazia and Russia. The Georgian forces are reportedly not accompanied by a heavy amount of artillery.

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