Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
A Lull in Tijuana
Residents of Tijuana in the far northwestern Mexican state of Baja California expressed fears last week that decreased violence will prompt the federal government to relocate military and federal law enforcement elements stationed in the city. Residents of the city have asked the federal government to maintain these forces to prevent Tijuana from regressing back into the state of anarchy that existed during the first four months of 2008. In one survey conducted by the medical community, which often has seen its members targeted in kidnappings and assassinations, a majority of Tijuana citizens feel the presence of soldiers and federal agents has led to the lull in violence.
While there has been a significant decrease in violence since the end of April, this improvement did not coincide with any significant deployment of troops and federal agents to the region. Instead, an agreement between warring criminal groups likely explains the improvement in Tijuana. Also suggesting that deployments of federal troops might not be the key to tranquility, a significant presence of military elements and federal law enforcement agents in Chihuahua for quite some time has failed to prevent violence from reaching an all-time high level. Of course, levels of violence might have spiked even higher in Chihuahua without federal troops.
The Mexican military raided a baptism in the western outskirts of Tijuana late June 21, detaining 62 people. Of the 62, five are suspected members of the Arellano Felix organization (AFO), including high-ranking lieutenant Jose Filiberto Parra Ramos. The majority of the detainees were transported to military installations in Tijuana, while Ramos was transferred to Mexico City. Depending on Ramos’ role in the AFO, and what part he played in the lull of violence in Tijuana, the impact of his arrest remains to be seen.
The Role of State and Local Law Enforcement
After a meeting with Sonora state Gov. Eduardo Bours Castelo, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano announced June 21 the signing of an agreement permitting the free exchange of information concerning firearms traffic between state and local law enforcement entities on either side of the border through the U.S. and Mexican consulates. She also announced expanded joint security operations.
While border security is primarily a federal issue, state and local law enforcement play a vital role in border security. State and local law enforcement have the advantage over federal operations of being better connected to border communities, of greater familiarity with the region’s geography and of insight into specific threats potentially affecting their communities.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |

