Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Boosting Troops in Sinaloa
Patricio Patiño Arias, the undersecretary of police intelligence strategy for Mexico’s federal Secretariat of Public Safety, said Dec. 28 that a total of 2,500 members of the Federal Preventive Police (PFP) will be sent to Sinaloa state in 2008 to help combat the Sinaloa cartel. One thousand troops were scheduled to be transferred in the first week of January. Patiño Arias’ announcement came during a public meeting in the state’s capital, Culiacán; Sinaloa Gov. Jesus Alberto Aguilar Padilla attended the ceremony.
The federal forces will concentrate their efforts on capturing Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera — who was accused this week of paying some 3,000 protesters to stage marches designed to pressure the Sinaloa government to reject federal troops — and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García. Patiño Arias said that, in addition to drug trafficking, officers will pursue related crimes, such as auto theft and arms trafficking. A particular operational emphasis will be placed on gathering accurate intelligence in the region in order to permit an effective offensive against the cartel.
The initial influx of troops will concentrate on marijuana crop destruction in mountainous areas. A heftier patrol regimen also will be set up in Culiacán, Los Mochis and Mazatlán.
In addition to the police offensive, Patiño Arias said a new system for selecting and evaluating state officials will be enacted in an effort to reduce corruption among public representatives. Patiño Arias said he hopes that, with such measures in place, the local government also can serve as a platform for evaluating the performance of — and corruption among — the PFP troops stationed in Sinaloa state.
The road to reduced corruption will be a long one, however. As with most measures designed to ensure government accountability in Mexico, the newly announced steps are unlikely to make a big difference. With the promise of lucrative bribes and the threat of a messy death, there is little incentive for public officials to decline cooperation with local cartels.
This commitment of troops is a good indication that the federal government is shifting to tackle the Sinaloa cartel after a recent strong focus on challenging the Gulf cartel in Tamaulipas state. As part of the Tamaulipas effort, about 5,000 troops from the Mexican military had been dispatched as of December 2007. Similar troop deployments in the city of Tijuana and in Michoacán state have totaled about 3,000 and 6,500, respectively.
With about half as many troops committed to Sinaloa as are committed to fighting the Gulf cartel in Tamaulipas, this week’s move could have only a limited impact on Sinaloa’s operational capacity. Even if more troops are introduced, however, the lasting impact of such operations is likely to be marginal, given the strength of the drug trade.
The Kidnapping of Calderon’s Cousin
Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s cousin, Alfonso Reyes, was kidnapped while getting into his car with his wife in Morelia, Michoacán state. Reyes reportedly was forced from his vehicle, handcuffed, beaten and then forced into the kidnappers’ vehicle. He was released four hours later.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |
