Libya: Ruling Council's Authority Challenged in Former Pro-Gadhafi Stronghold

PATRICK BAZ/AFP/Getty Images

A Libyan rebel removes Gadhafi-era flags in Tripoli on Aug. 26, 2011

Summary

On Jan. 23, local tribesman attacked the barracks of a militia in charge of Bani Walid, Libya, and in doing so gained control of the town. The incident is a major setback for the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC), which was aligned with the militia that had controlled Bani Walid prior to the attack. Libyan Defense Minister Osama al-Juwali held talks with the tribesman in the town on Jan. 25, and afterwards announced that the NTC had regained control of Bani Walid. Whether or not this is true, resumed fighting in Bani Walid would only add to the NTC's ongoing struggles to hold the country together.

Analysis

Libyan Defense Minister Osama al-Juwali on Jan. 25 said the Libyan government had regained control of the central Libyan town of Bani Walid following talks he held with tribal elders there earlier in the day. The talks came after a Jan. 23 attack on the barracks of the May 28 Brigade militia, a group nominally allied with the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC), from whom local tribesmen wrested control of the town. Irrespective of al-Juwali's claims to have settled the issue, the attack constitutes a serious threat to the credibility of the NTC. Already facing unprecedented dissent in its hometown of Benghazi, the NTC now faces open rebellion in an area historically known as a Gadhafi stronghold.

Defeated militia leaders and deposed local council officials have accused their attackers of being pro-Gadhafi, a charge the elders in Bani Walid and the NTC have denied. (First-hand media accounts Jan. 24 reported seeing none of the Gadhafi-era green flags that allegedly flew over the town a day prior.) Though they may have been allied with Gadhafi before his death, these tribesmen are now likely fighting for their own interests, which do not include subservience to the NTC or the NTC-appointed interim government. The longer it takes for the NTC or one of its allied militias to prove that the council has regained control of Bani Walid, the greater the blow delivered to the NTC's reputation as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people -- and to the chances of Libya's remaining a unified country.

Though much disinformation surrounds the attack, it appears that five members of the militia were killed, and its leaders were forced to flee the town. The militia was one of several in the network of armed groups working with the NTC and controlling various localities in Libya. The NTC does not wield absolute control over all groups in the network, but both sides understand their interests are somewhat compatible. The fighters believed to control Bani Walid are members of the Warfallah tribe -- the biggest tribal confederation in Libya, historically very close to Gadhafi. The former ties to Gadhafi, along with the rugged terrain that helps defend the town, explain why Bani Walid was among the last towns to fall during the 2011 war.

A group of some 200 Warfallah elders met in Bani Walid on Jan. 24, during which they decided to abolish the town's NTC-appointed military and civilian councils and appoint a local council of their own. An open rebuke of the NTC and the interim government it appointed in October, the rebellion comes as the country prepares for June elections to select a constituent assembly tasked with drafting a new constitution. The rebellion in Bani Walid has only added to the blow dealt in the past week to the NTC's reputation as a central authority in Libya: On Jan. 21, a mob of angry demonstrators stormed the NTC headquarters building in Benghazi, the hometown and supposed stronghold of the council.

Despite accusations of Gadhafi loyalties, it is unlikely that the new authority in Bani Walid is bent on reviving the old Gadhafi regime. Residents in the town who view NTC-allied militias as enemies are more likely attempting to carve out a piece of their own territory, similar to what occurred months ago in the coastal city of Misurata.

The NTC's claims to have retaken control of the town have for the moment put to rest a looming military intervention to forcefully retake Bani Walid. Should the alleged settlement collapse, however, the NTC would have to rely on the limited forces at its disposal to attack the town. A credible standing Libyan Army has yet to coalesce, and any military action would be coordinated with the militias that continue to operate in Benghazi and other parts of the country. Indeed, while al-Juwali was holding talks in Bani Walid, NTC-allied militias were reportedly positioned on three sides of the town, ready for the order to move in.

There is no fighting in Bani Walid at the moment, but the current situation likely is untenable for the NTC. Should the settlement collapse, militias from Misurata, Zintan and Tripoli, as well as forces from Benghazi, would be charged with retaking the town. Like Misurata, Bani Walid risks effectively turning into a city-state of its own. Were this to occur, the NTC's image as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people would suffer greatly -- and there remains no other entity in Libya ready replace the NTC.