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By a vote of 156-161, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi lost his own vote of confidence (his 33rd this term) in the upper house of the Italian Parliament on Jan. 24, which will force him to submit his resignation to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano. Prodi called the vote after one of the minor players in his nine-party Olive Tree coalition — the (Catholic) Popular-UDEUR party — quit the alliance, robbing him of his majority.

Predicting the path Italian politics will follow is a bit like herding cats. Italy averages about a government a year. The country has had 61 different administrations in 63 years — administrations that constantly are wracked with infighting. Still, there is a short list with a particularly high probability.

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