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Editor’s Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
1. The aftermath of the Russo-Georgian war: The fallout from the Russo-Georgian war remains our main focus. At this point we are in a diplomatic mode, with the Europeans trying to appear decisive while making certain they don’t actually do anything to upset the Russians. This activity covers the real question: What, if anything, are the Russians thinking of doing next? The Russians have two basic options. One is to do nothing, but allow the psychological consequences of their action sink in. The other is to take further actions in order to directly change the reality. Their decision is central.
2. Cheney’s travels: U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has visited Georgia and Ukraine. The visits are interesting as they are designed to irritate the Russians without seeming to do anything meaningful. Cheney is also visiting Italy, for reasons that are somewhat opaque. We have spoken of rumors of a meeting between Cheney and the Iranians. Such rumors circulate from time to time, so we must not take them too seriously. However, there is some pressure now for Washington to come to some understanding with Iran or Russia, so as to avoid a scenario in which Russia and Iran ally against the United States. The trip indicates no desire by the United States to settle matters with Russia. That leaves Iran. We need to watch developments there.
3. Conditions in Iraq: U.S. talks on withdrawing from Iraq have foundered on the question of Iraqi rights to put U.S. troops on trial. Washington will not budge on that issue. The United States is being asked to sell F-16s to Iraq while the Iraqis are taking control of more and more territory. The United States needs to withdraw troops from Iraq. Things are coming to a boiling point there. The world has been ignoring the country and it is not about to blow up. But the diplomatic relationship between the United States and Iraq is getting interesting and important. It needs to be monitored.
4. Oil prices: A few months ago we wrote on the geopolitics of $130 oil. Oil has now plunged, and we do not know how far it will go. Let’s start thinking of the geopolitics of cheaper oil. How does this affect Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the rest?
5. Israeli politics: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s leadership is about over. None of the deals with the Palestinians or Syrians seem likely to happen. What happens to these discussions now, particularly the Syrian talks? Are they still alive, or are they finished?
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