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1. The ongoing Israeli airstrike mystery: Numerous theories have been generated about the Sept. 6, 2007, airstrike by Israel in Syria. It is still not clear what was hit or why, but a spate of new theories are emerging ranging from claims the target was everything from a facility for the production of the nerve gas VX to an Iranian storage facility for nuclear weapons. The most important theory is that the Syrians passed information regarding the existence of the facility to the Israelis via the Turks, explaining Syrian reticence to condemn Israel and the current Israeli-Syrian negotiations. The September 2007 incident is more than ancient history. Now that Israeli domestic politics have settled down, the biggest threat to a Syrian-Israel deal is dead — meaning the more we understand what happened Sept. 6, 2007, the more we can understand and forecast the current negotiations. The airstrike touches everything, so we need to gather the theories and figure this out.
2. A political compromise in Israel:The Kadima-Labor party compromise this week means that whether or not Olmert stays on as prime minister, Israel’s current government probably will remain in place. The deal massively facilitates the ongoing Israeli-Syrian peace talks. Elsewhere, the French are assuring Damascus that even Likud is all for a peace treaty. With Syrians assured about the prospects for peace, we should start seeing more concrete action on their part against Hezbollah. This is where Lebanon will get really interesting, to say the least.
3. U.S.-Iranian relations: The U.S. opening to Iran is, of course, crucial. We need to understand where this idea originated and why it was floated. Our working theory is that it was a good cop/bad cop arrangement between Israel and the United States designed to weaken Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s position. That interpretation may or may not be right, but either way, it was certainly not a trivial event. It is fading from public attention so we need to really focus on it.
4. Israel, Syria and the Sarkozy incident: The suicide or accidental death of a Druze soldier in the Israeli army while on duty during a visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Israel needs more attention. Though the accident vs. lone gunmen debate isn’t important, the fact that the victim was Druze raises an important question. The Israeli-Syrian talks will strengthen Syria in Lebanon. The French are playing a role in that process. One of the big losers from this process would be the Druze community in Lebanon, which has been hostile to the Syrians since the killing of former Syrian Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Pure speculation: Was this a hit on Sarkozy and/or Olmert initiated by Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze in Lebanon? Israeli and Syrian Druze operate separately, but not in isolation. We have no evidence for the conjecture, but it must be looked at.
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