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There is an odd quiet globally. The Middle East is seeing tension easing across the board. Tensions between Russia and the Czechs or Georgians have mounted, but nothing like they could have. The Chinese are tense but managing the run-up to the Olympics and the oil price rise as well as can be expected. Nothing appears to be coming apart at the seams. There are these periods occasionally, but they are usually followed by widespread disruptions and crises. Therefore, this is the time to focus on the quiet, looking to detect the disruptions.
1. Oil prices: Oil prices remain at the top of the list. We don’t know what they will do, but we do know they are continuing to pressure the global economy. We must still focus on who will crack first and how.
2. The United States and Iran: We have consistently argued that the U.S.-Iranian confrontation is not really about nuclear weapons but about Iraq, and that the chances of war are actually quite low even though we have seen an increase in war scares this week. However, nuclear talks are progressing against the backdrop of these war threats, which indicates that there has been progress. The current evolution, in which both sides seem to be lowering the temperature, seems to confirm our theory. So now is the time to start thinking about how we might have been wrong.
3. Russia: Russia represents a similar opportunity. We have argued that the United States is on a collision course with Russia and that the Russians have fomented a crisis with Georgia in retaliation for Kosovo. That appears to be the course things took; the Europeans made their point in Kosovo and the Russians have made their point in Georgia. This balance could be disrupted by the United States getting its ballistic missile defense station in Poland and/or radars in the Czech Republic, though. So now is the time to consider whether the Russians might be on a different path than we might think. As with U.S.-Iran relations, now is the time to use the lull to challenge our own assumptions.
4. Israel and Syria: And the same goes with Israel and Syria. Every indication is that there will be a deal. It is almost certain that Hezbollah or some Palestinian group will carry out some attacks in Israel in an attempt to disrupt the deal. That’s been common practice. Is it possible for an act such as this to blow the discussions out of the water? Could Israel or Syria decide to follow another course?
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