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1. The United States’ actions regarding Georgia: The focus this week is on Washington. The United States has made it clear that it is opposed to Russian actions in Georgia. What exactly will Washington do? There are two obvious options. One is to insert a small unit, say a battalion, in Georgia, as a symbol and to support Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. The second is to build up a squadron in the Black Sea. The first creates a long-term presence for the United States in Georgia — not a great idea. The second would also support Ukraine but is meaningful only if Washington is prepared to use the force to blockade or harass — both are dangerous, and NATO would not sanction such actions. Furthermore, the crisis before this one was Iran. At some point the United States will have to refocus on that, and accept the possibility of Russian arms sales to Iran. Regardless, watch Washington this week.
2. Iran’s moves: Watch Iran as well. The country’s supreme leader has endorsed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second term. That is a huge blow to Washington’s hope for a change in Iranian policy. Iran seems to be measuring how distracted Washington is by Russia before making a move, but there are indicators in Baghdad that Shia might be increasing pressure on Sunnis. Iran could be reconsidering its decision not to undermine the current government but to try to increase the power of its allies. While The Iranians are testing the United States for vulnerabilities, they are still indicating that a deal is possible. Muqtada al-Sadr has announced the complete disbanding of his militia, and there have been leaks that al-Sadr will stay in Iran — under Tehran’s thumb — for years.
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