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1. The conflict in the Caucasus: The main battlefield has shifted from the cities of South Ossetia to the capitals of Europe and the United States. While it is still important to watch the tactical deployment of forces on the ground (and further assess the effectiveness of Russian forces and the devastation of the Georgian military as more information — and hard evidence — emerges), the main questions revolve around the ongoing reactions of other states. The French have taken the lead on the diplomatic front, but geography dictates that the German response is even more critical. In particular, we need to watch how Europe handles the situation, whether there is European unity in crafting a response to Russia, whether the European Union and NATO follow similar courses, and what stresses emerge inside Europe and in the trans-Atlantic relationship. Closer to Russia, Ukraine is the next area to watch.
2. Iraq/Iran: While the Iraq and Iran issues have appeared to fade into the background amid the Russia-Georgia conflict, Washington’s inability to respond to the conflict in the Caucasus brings into sharp focus the need to swiftly find a solution that frees up U.S. military assets. Watch for any signs of accelerated accommodation between Washington and Tehran, and Russian involvement in the region.
3. U.S. military: Relatedly, we have long argued that enormous military commitments to Iraq and Afghanistan have profoundly limited U.S. military options in the rest of the world — presenting a “window of opportunity” for other global players. The Georgian crisis has demonstrated precisely what we meant by that. But this is also the point where it begins to matter not conceptually, but in fact. We need to re-examine the status of that window, especially with further drawdowns of U.S. forces in Iraq in the cards.
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