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Russia has threatened to send more troops to the Georgian separatist province of Abkhazia if Georgia continues to increase its military presence in the region, the Russian Defense Ministry said May 8 in a statement.
These sorts of statements, countered by Georgian accusations of Russian aggression, have become the norm in the region. But word of actual troop movements coupled with greater domestic tensions in Georgia means this tit-for-tat easily could turn into something more — which would suit Moscow just fine.
Stratfor has long observed the tense standoff between Georgia and Russia. A slew of issues have inflamed this situation, including Georgia’s Westward reorientation and the stationing of Russian troops in Abkhazia and the other Georgian breakaway region, South Ossetia.
But over the past few weeks, the noise from both Moscow and Tbilisi has grown much louder, and for the first time, this noise has been accompanied by troop movements. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russia currently has 2,542 troops in Abkhazia. This is nearly 1,000 more than it had there in late 2007, suggesting Moscow quickly followed through on its threat to surge reinforcements to the region. For its part, Georgia has announced that it moved 1,500 troops to its border with Abkhazia for a total of approximately 7,000 Georgian troops in the area.
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