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By George FriedmanThe manner in which each war is fought and concluded lays the groundwork for the next conflict. There are no wars to end all wars. Conflict and warfare are a permanent part of the human condition.It is far more useful to think of war as a single, inseparable thread running throughout the fabric of human history than as separate, disconnected episodes. The thread that led to Sept. 11 ultimately can be traced to the 1980s and long before.Late in the Cold War, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. The United States, having had its own strength sapped in Vietnam partly due to Soviet assistance to the North Vietnamese, saw an opportunity to return the favor. By arming the Afghan resistance fighters, the United States not only trapped the Soviets in an unwinnable war but also helped create the general crisis of confidence in the Soviet Union that led to its collapse. There was a price to be paid though. Although American support to the Afghan resistance was logical and necessary, given the time and circumstances, it helped lay the groundwork for the current crisis. The war that began Sept. 11, like every war, will change the world in profound but not wholly unpredictable ways.The biggest winner in this war, it appears today, will not be the United States but Russia. The geography of Afghanistan makes Russia indispensable to the United States. Unless America gets lucky and manages to locate and capture or kill Osama bin Laden very quickly -- an event that would trigger the collapse of the Taliban government -- Washington will have to fight an extended war in Afghanistan. There are only two bases from which to operate. One is Pakistan, highly unstable and capable of turning on the United States should certain factions gain control. The other base comprises the three states lining Afghanistan's northern border: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Mounting an effective military campaign without this Central Asian base would be very difficult.Although Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are independent republics, they are still under Russia's influence.
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