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The Irish “no” vote on the Lisbon Treaty referendum on June 12, besides throwing the European Union into an immediate institutional crisis, might have closed the door on further enlargement as well.
The immediate comments from European bureaucrats have been attempts to assuage the effects of the Lisbon Treaty failure on enlargement, especially in light of not-so-subtle grumblings from most EU capitals against further enlargement. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said June 16 that “enlargement will not stop, the process of European unification and integration will not stop,” and that there was “no direct link” between the Irish vote and EU enlargement.
Stratfor’s conclusion, however, differs. The “direct link” between enlargement and the Lisbon defeat is the short attention span that Brussels will now have for the recalcitrant Balkan states as it attempts to put its own house in order.
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