Quick Take: Attacks in Mumbai
Video Transcript:
Analyst Reva Bhalla explains how the July 13th bombings differ from the 2008 Mumbai attacks and how they could complicate U.S. negotiating efforts in South Asia.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
At least three bombings occurred in southern Mumbai the evening of July 13th. Each of these bombings targeted crowded areas and there are reports that some explosive devices may not have detonated. What's important to note about these attacks is that they did not appear to involve suicide attackers like the 2008 attacks. In the July 13th attacks, the explosive devices were located in places like a taxi, a meter box -- in other words, places where they could be remotely detonated.
They also did not appear to rise to the level of magnitude as the bombings of the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Instead, these attacks appear to fall in line with the modus operandi of an indigenous militant group in India known as the Indian Mujahideen. Now this is a group that we've seen pop up a few times over the past years. A relatively amateurish group that's been able to carry out low to medium intensity attacks that could have links to Pakistan-based groups as well, but do not rise to the level of sophistication as elements of the now defunct Lashkar-e-Taiba group that have started to collaborate more and more so with transnational jihadist groups like al Qaeda across the border.
Though the July 13th attacks do not appear to reach the same level of crisis as the 2008 Mumbai attacks, they are bound to complicate Indian-Pakistani relations. Naturally, India tends to point the finger at Pakistan whenever attacks like this occur. And these attacks are occurring at a most critical juncture in U.S.-Pakistani relations. The United States is trying to accelerate a withdrawal from Afghanistan and it needs Pakistan in order to do so. The last thing the United States needs is a crisis between India and Pakistan that could complicate that process. Following this attack, India can be expected to place heavier demands on the United States to pressure Pakistan into cooperating more in the counterterrorism front.
But the United States needs to manage an already very tense relationship with the Pakistanis right now as it relies on Pakistan to forge an accommodation with the Taliban that would allow the United States to bring closure to the war. India is already greatly unnerved by the U.S.-Pakistani negotiation taking place. And regardless of whether Pakistan was actually involved in an attack like this or whether this was the work of indigenous elements in India, attacks like this will only complicate an already highly complex web of relations on the subcontinent.
