Above the Tearline: Saudi Assassination in Pakistan
Video Transcript:
Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the recent assassination of a Saudi security officer and discusses the vulnerabilities faced by diplomats and foreign nationals in Pakistan.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
In light of the U.S. killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, worldwide alerts and advisories went out reminding everybody that al Qaeda and other groups associated with the organization could retaliate. In this week's Above the Tearline, we're going to discuss the Saudi security officer gunned down in Karachi, Pakistan.
In looking at the tactics surrounding the terrorist attack, there are several things that come to mind. One, the attack shortly after departure of residence. We have seen these kinds of attacks on numerous occasions in the past. Gunmen utilize motorcycles, which are a perfect assassination vehicle because of the ease of getting in and out of traffic as well as escape. You had two individuals on a motorcycle -- one driving and the individual on the back firing what appears to be a pistol into the diplomatic car. It also appears to me that the diplomat was not driving an armored vehicle based on the projection of the rounds through the car into the window as well as rounds through the vehicle which you can see on the videotape.
The attack on a Saudi diplomat comes on the heels of the CIA security officer Raymond Davis who was engaged in a shootout with individuals on motorcycles and, if you compare and contrast the two different events, clearly Mr. Davis was able to recognize what he believed to be an attack unfolding and take action to defend himself. The Saudi diplomat appears to have not seen this unfold and literally was a sitting duck.
The Above the Tearline aspect in looking at this terrorist attack today in Karachi is that, based on the driving schools and counterterrorism investigations that I have done, 80 percent of all terrorist victims are usually attacked in that window of time and proximity near their residence as they depart on their way to work. Most people are much more predictable in that window of time in order to get to work for a specific meeting or telephone call. The unpredictable nature of when you leave at the end of the business day doesn't afford the terrorists the opportunity to strike as easily. Having said that, they still can set up at your other chokepoint, which is your residence. The lessons learned here is this: you have to have a heightened sense of awareness the moment you depart your residence as well as the moment you return at the end of the business day if you're operating in a hostile environment like what's currently in play in Pakistan.
