Dispatch: Deciphering the Estonian Cyclist Hostage Video
Video Transcript:
Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the hostage video of the seven Estonian cyclists kidnapped in Lebanon and discusses the intelligence that can be gleaned from it.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
In March, seven Estonian cyclists were kidnapped by a terrorist organization in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. Recently a hostage videotape has been released, and today we're going to take a look at that based upon my years of experience examining hostage videotapes as a former counterterrorism agent.
From an intelligence perspective hostage tapes are very valuable; this shows that there is proof of life, although we don't know the exact date that the video was shot. The hostages all being together -- all seven in one room -- is a good sign from a counterterrorism perspective, especially if you're thinking about a hostage rescue. In looking at all the seven hostages together, I also note that it doesn't appear that they are shackled or handcuffed or like we had in Lebanon, chained to a radiator, which is a positive sign; although you can tell by their body language that the video was certainly shot under duress, probably at gunpoint.
From a forensics perspective there's a tremendous amount of intelligence that can be gleaned from a video. First is lighting, you're looking for whether this is natural or man-made. It appears in this videotape to be man-made based upon the shadows in the background of the hostages, which indicates that perhaps the video was shot at night or maybe in a basement location. From listening to the audio of the hostage statements it appears to me that the hostages are being contained in a controlled geography, meaning a space that either the terrorist captors control, or a government may. For example, some of the intelligence we have seen indicates that the hostages had been moved to Syria, and that would make sense from their ability to control the geography. It doesn't appear to me to have a lot of background street noises, which indicates either a controlled facility or in a very rural location.
Each hostage is going to have a file by the investigators looking at this case, and in that file there will be pictures of the individual, medical history, bio history, whether or not they've had any kind of military experience, a general bio dump on who that person is, and you can compare and contrast the hostage video pictures with your last known photographs to make a determination as to how they're being treated: are they being fed well, are they clean-shaven, does it appear that they've suffered any kind of abuse or torture.
One of the more interesting things in looking at videotape is if you have a good intelligence file on each hostage, you can examine some of their body language and demeanor, such as eye movements, in an effort to see if they are trying to send you for example, a Morse code signal, or is that eye movement something that is very normal. And it's not unusual to show family members or significant others videotape and ask for their assessment as to whether or not the individual on the tape is trying to send you a signal or give you some kind of hint as to where they could be held. It's my assessment from looking at countless videotapes like this that this is a very positive step, the hostages are alive, they appear to be in good shape so let's hope that we continue to see additional video that will aid the investigators in their effort to locate the hostages.
