Dispatch: Pakistan Releases CIA Contractor
Video Transcript:
Vice President of Tactical Intelligence Scott Stewart discusses the release of CIA contractor Raymond Davis from Pakistan and recommends Americans in Pakistan keep a close eye on the public's reaction.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
On March 16, U.S. government contractor Raymond Davis was released from prison in Lahore, Pakistan. Davis was arrested on Jan. 27 following an apparent robbery attempt in Lahore in which he shot the two assailants that he believed were robbing him. Davis has now left Pakistan and has reportedly flown to London.
Following Davis' arrest, there was a big discussion and really negotiations between the United States government and the government of Pakistan regarding the issue of whether or not Davis had diplomatic immunity at the time the incident occurred. Developments, however, didn't really center around diplomatic immunity. Instead Davis was charged with two counts of murder in Pakistani court, and then was pardoned based on the recommendation of the families of the victims. Under Pakistani law victims can accept basically what is basically referred to as blood money in exchange for allowing a murder suspect to be freed or be pardoned. And in this case, it appears the families did receive a payment of blood money. Paying and accepting blood money is something that is outlined under Shariah law, which is Islamic law, and is also part of Pakistani law. Because of this, the current resolution of the Davis case was done in a manner that is really within the cultural expectations and the cultural norms of Pakistan.
The way that this case has been resolved through this blood money process, is a resolution that is less likely to inflame public sentiment than if Davis had been released due to the fact that he had been found to have diplomatic immunity. This means that the chances of large-scale public unrest and really civil disobedience are reduced. We expect that the government of Pakistan will try to calm things down and probably the mainstream opposition parties will also follow the government's lead and not really agitate on this, because of this form of resolution. However, the radical parties, the people like the Pakistani Taliban who all along have been calling for Davis' death are sure to attempt to agitate things.
What we're watching for at STRATFOR is to see which way public sentiment rules: whether it will accept this resolution as acceptable or whether they will be outraged and take to the streets. If the Pakistani people do take to the streets, and as we've seen in past cases where the outrage, so we saw restaurants with McDonald's and Kentucky Fried Chicken attacked. Because of this, Americans in Pakistan need to pay close attention to the developments to see which way things are going to break, to see whether there's going to be mob violence are not. Americans residing in Pakistan need to dust off their contingency plans and need to be ready to evacuate should things turn for the worst.
