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Editor’s Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
1. The U.S. financial crisis: Standard political maneuvers notwithstanding, the U.S. financial bailout plan should be in place by the end of the weekend. The most important question we need to examine is if this bailout plan will resolve the problems in the system. The first indicators will come from the equity markets, but we need to keep in mind the poor track record of traders forecasting the market. We should have a clearer idea of investor confidence later in the week. Only then can we assess the geopolitical impact and contagion effect of the financial crisis.
2. Stirrings in Chechnya: A civil war in Chechnya is building up between the Kadyrov and Yamadayev factions. We need to see if the Kremlin can clamp down on this quickly enough to prevent another full-blown Chechen war and to prevent outside powers from jumping into the fray. If a war does erupt, what’s the potential for it to spread to Dagestan, Ingushetia and Georgia in the northern Caucasus? Most importantly, will the United States see instability in Chechnya as an opportunity to tie Russia’s hands? We need to look for signs of U.S., as well as Saudi, involvement in Chechnya. The Kremlin will be moving quickly to try to lock the situation down.
3. Iraq’s Awakening Councils: The Shia-dominated Iraqi government will assume control over the 100,000-strong Sunni tribal militia force known as the Awakening Councils/Sons of Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, his principal backer Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, and the Iranians want to defang this force. The handover provides them an opportunity to do so, and the Sunnis will resist. We need to see how well (or not) this transition takes place and any signs of jihadist resurgence and sectarian violence. How will Washington ensure the integration of these Sunnis into the security apparatus?
4. Iran’s influence in Iraq: We have to seriously examine the question of whether Iran’s credibility among its principal allies in Iraq has declined. Is the United States still putting the effort into working out a deal with the Iranians on Iraq, or has Washington moved onto bigger and more pressing issues in the Pakistani-Afghan and Eurasian theaters?
5. The Russians in Latin America: Our eyes remain focused on Russian activity in Latin America. There were signs this past week that the Russians could be putting their money where their mouth is by subsidizing their allies in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba. We need to see if Russia actually follows through with any of these projects.
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