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Stratfor discussed on Sept. 23 how a Syrian troop buildup on the northern Syria-Lebanon border near the Lebanese city of Tripoli was likely part of a Syrian plan to physically reassert control over Lebanon. To meet this objective, however, Syria would have to justify a military intervention by instigating clashes between the Syrian-backed Syrian Nationalist and Socialist Party and the Saudi-backed Future Trend movement led by prominent Sunni leader Saad al-Hariri. With Syrian intelligence officers already orchestrating plans in Tripoli, Syria has the groundwork laid and the troops readied to move into Lebanon should it so desire.
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