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Recent developments suggest the Russians have at least temporarily decided to go easy on the Turks. How long this cooling down of tensions will last will depend on how much tolerance Ankara has for further Russian aggression.

The Aug. 8 Russian invasion of Georgia naturally precipitated a standoff between the Russians and the Turks. Turkey, a NATO member with a historic foothold in the Caucasus, was not happy to see the Russians taking aggressive action in the region — especially action that cut off the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and hurt Turkish energy revenues. The Turks reminded Moscow of the risks of angering Ankara by permitting a NATO naval buildup in the Black Sea in late August. The Russians promptly responded by holding up a large amount of Turkish goods at various Russian border checkpoints to put the squeeze on Turkish exports.

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