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Russian planes flew south from Venezuelan airfields Sept. 16 along the coast toward Brazil. Though the bombers stayed well within international waters, the event raises some serious questions for Brazil — particularly in light of Russian weapons representatives’ ongoing high-level visits to Venezuela. Fundamentally, a buildup of Russian influence in South America threatens Brazil as well as the United States.
Brazil — while strong — must face a number of challenges before it can achieve anything like regional hegemony. Though large, and possessing massive natural resources, Brazil is a geographically isolated country. Because of this isolation, Brazil has yet to make many of the major changes necessary to develop a true leadership role in the region. With rising oil wealth on the line and the Russians beginning to show their hand in the region, Brazil may be about to face a challenge that will force it to take on a more aggressive stance and make greater progress toward regional dominance.
Brazil’s internal geography is more like China’s than the United States’. Unlike the United States, Brazil has had no great “westward expansion” in which the core population has significantly populated the hinterland. Like China, it has a long coastline on its eastern border, large empty tracks in its central and western quarters, mountainous geographic barriers along its western perimeter and abundant natural resources. The Amazon rainforest is a sea of uncharted territory that both buffers Brazil’s western flank from outside intrusion and serves as a source of potential insecurity because of the sheer difficulty of controlling the territory; this is of particular concern as it abuts Venezuela, and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s stomping grounds.
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