Analysis

Lebanon - Hez member with picture phone
The Lebanese government could find Shiite militant group Hezbollah's vast communications network difficult to dismantle, in spite of its decision to do so. [more]
police chief
The Gulf cartel staged a high-profile hit May 8 in Sinaloa state, gunning down the son of the Sinaloa cartel leader on the same day Mexico’s federal police chief and anti-kidnapping director were killed in Mexico City, thought to be the work of Sinaloa. [more]
israeli prime minister
The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. [more]
serbia posters
May 9, 2008 2046 GMT
Serbia next elections are May 11. The Serbian Radical Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia could together capture enough votes to form a governing coalition. But interim Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica will be the one who decides which party comes to power. [more]
China torch
Chinese media reported that the Olympic torch was extinguished May 8 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. Stratfor sources confirm that the torch was briefly extinguished, but it was the result of crowd control being unable to contain over-enthusiastic spectators. Still, fears remain that the mainland torch run will be impeded at some point by political protest.(With Stratfor map) [more]
Japanese launch vehicle
Japan could soon begin exploiting space militarily for the first time. [more]
Former Bayelsa state Gov. Timimpre Sylva (second from right)
May 9, 2008 1819 GMT
Nigeria's Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) militant group is in discussions with the government in Abuja to strike a peace deal. [more]
Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Siniora
Stratfor sources reported May 9 that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has been asked to resign by the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon after Hezbollah's takeover of western Beirut. (With Stratfor maps) [more]
Boats in Yangon harbor destroyed by Cyclone Nargis
The Cyclone Nargis crisis will not topple Myanmar's military regime, nor force it to open its doors en masse to foreign aid workers. [more]
lebanese soldiers
Clashes in Beirut between pro-government militias and Hezbollah are all in accordance with a plan. But the more chaotic Beirut becomes, the better Syria can justify its return as kingmaker. (With Stratfor maps) [more]
iraqi soldier
May 8, 2008 2120 GMT
The leader of al Qaeda in Iraq has been arrested, the Iraqi Defense Ministry announced May 8. [more]
Lebanese protester with burning tires
Violence spread throughout Lebanon on May 8 during a second day of protests by Hezbollah. [more]
Georgians in traditional garb protest at the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi on May 8
The standoff between Russia and Georgia is becoming more and more serious. [more]
Somalian Islamist - Dec 2007
The United States is likely to get more involved in Somalia, in part to curb the activities of the militant group al Shabab. However, without a strong central government in Somalia, al Shabab could end up thriving. [more]
Yemeni soldier next to damaged building
May 8, 2008 1910 GMT
A recent trend of growing insecurity in Yemen could signal the unraveling of the Yemeni state. [more]
Indian vendor sifting grains of wheat
India is banning futures trading on several commodities, including an assortment of food, in an attempt to slow down inflation and thus prevent riots. [more]
Victory Day Parade Rehearsal
May 8, 2008 1700 GMT
Russia will use its annual Victory Day celebration on May 9 as an opportunity to send a clear message to the West and to the Russian people. (With Stratfor interactive photo essay) [more]
An ARJ-21 airframe under construction
China's long-awaited new aircraft manufacturing company is about to be unveiled, and its formation represents a classic example of an internal Chinese power struggle. [more]
somalians
Somalian Islamists are moving to prevent the government of Somalia from changing the African country's currency, in a bid to keep the government from gaining a monopoly on counterfeiting. [more]
Global Market Brief - Stock
The Chinese government's debate over whether to implement a one-off yuan revaluation will not lead to any change in Beijing's current policy of gradual appreciation. [more]