Analysis

The Lebanese government could find Shiite militant group Hezbollah's vast communications network difficult to dismantle, in spite of its decision to do so. [more]

The Gulf cartel staged a high-profile hit May 8 in Sinaloa state, gunning down the son of the Sinaloa cartel leader on the same day Mexico’s federal police chief and anti-kidnapping director were killed in Mexico City, thought to be the work of Sinaloa. [more]

The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. [more]

Serbia next elections are May 11. The Serbian Radical Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia could together capture enough votes to form a governing coalition. But interim Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica will be the one who decides which party comes to power. [more]

Chinese media reported that the Olympic torch was extinguished May 8 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. Stratfor sources confirm that the torch was briefly extinguished, but it was the result of crowd control being unable to contain over-enthusiastic spectators. Still, fears remain that the mainland torch run will be impeded at some point by political protest.(With Stratfor map) [more]

Japan could soon begin exploiting space militarily for the first time. [more]

Nigeria's Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) militant group is in discussions with the government in Abuja to strike a peace deal. [more]

Stratfor sources reported May 9 that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has been asked to resign by the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon after Hezbollah's takeover of western Beirut. (With Stratfor maps) [more]

The Cyclone Nargis crisis will not topple Myanmar's military regime, nor force it to open its doors en masse to foreign aid workers. [more]

Clashes in Beirut between pro-government militias and Hezbollah are all in accordance with a plan. But the more chaotic Beirut becomes, the better Syria can justify its return as kingmaker. (With Stratfor maps) [more]

The leader of al Qaeda in Iraq has been arrested, the Iraqi Defense Ministry announced May 8. [more]

Violence spread throughout Lebanon on May 8 during a second day of protests by Hezbollah. [more]

The standoff between Russia and Georgia is becoming more and more serious. [more]

The United States is likely to get more involved in Somalia, in part to curb the activities of the militant group al Shabab. However, without a strong central government in Somalia, al Shabab could end up thriving. [more]

A recent trend of growing insecurity in Yemen could signal the unraveling of the Yemeni state. [more]

India is banning futures trading on several commodities, including an assortment of food, in an attempt to slow down inflation and thus prevent riots. [more]

Russia will use its annual Victory Day celebration on May 9 as an opportunity to send a clear message to the West and to the Russian people. (With Stratfor interactive photo essay) [more]

China's long-awaited new aircraft manufacturing company is about to be unveiled, and its formation represents a classic example of an internal Chinese power struggle. [more]

Somalian Islamists are moving to prevent the government of Somalia from changing the African country's currency, in a bid to keep the government from gaining a monopoly on counterfeiting. [more]

The Chinese government's debate over whether to implement a one-off yuan revaluation will not lead to any change in Beijing's current policy of gradual appreciation. [more]