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Stratfor sources report that the three African members of the United Nations Security Council -- Cameroon, Guinea and Angola -- are enduring "almost unbearable" pressure from four major powers seeking to secure their votes for or against the resolution submitted Feb. 24 by the United States, United Kingdom and Spain. In addition to the signatories, only Bulgaria currently is firmly committed to support the resolution, and Washington needs an additional five votes for it to pass, barring a French veto.
Germany, Mexico and Syria have publicly stated they will not support the resolution. France, China and Russia will not vote in favor of the measure, though abstention is possible. This leaves the three African members and Chile, which reportedly is investigating Mexico's position but wants a free-trade agreement with the United States. The math already suggests the resolution will fail, but three African no-votes would turn a deadlocked Security Council into a landslide against U.S. policy. So the United States and United Kingdom on one side -- and France and Germany on the other -- are bringing tremendous pressure to bear on the African members.
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