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A document distributed among our analysts that provides guidance on the week's key geopolitical events.

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The Political Shift in Ukraine

Ukraine's presidential run-off on Feb. 7 brought a narrow victory for former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich over current Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko. Results showed that Yanukovich -- who lost to Timoshenko and outgoing President Victor Yushchenko in the Orange Revolution of 2004 -- gained deeper support in some provinces, while Timoshenko shed support in others. But the fundamental issues that divide eastern Ukraine from the western half of the country appear to remain unbridged.

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Ukraine’s presidential run-off on Feb. 7 brought a narrow victory for former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich over current Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko. The vote tallies, however, suggest that fundamental issues dividing eastern Ukraine from the western half of the country remain unbridged.

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The Kremlin Wars

5 Part Series

The Militant Threat to Hotels

Special in-depth report

Monographs & Maps

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The Geopolitics of Israel: Biblical and Modern

Country: Israel

A Mountain Fortress Besieged

Country: Mexico

Video Dispatch: Reading Ukraine's Election
February 9, 2010 0054 GMT
A narrow win for Viktor Yanukovich, a former Ukrainian prime minister, marks a win for Russia, but Ukraine itself will remain politically fractured, analyst Marko Papic says. [more]
Mexico Security Memo: Feb. 8, 2010
February 8, 2010 2329 GMT
The Mexico Security Memo tracks and analyzes key incidents over the past week. (With STRATFOR interactive map) [more]
Thailand: Protests and Coup Rumors
February 8, 2010 2328 GMT
Thailand's United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship is trying to sow instability in the country, but the group's abilities are weakening. [more]
Somalia: An Imminent Offensive Against Al Shabaab?
There has been a definite uptick in indicators that the Somali military, in concert with other forces, will soon go after the jihadist group. (With STRATFOR map) [more]
U.K.: Out of Recession, Not Out of Trouble
February 8, 2010 1655 GMT
Despite numbers showing the United Kingdom has exited recession, the world's leading financial hub faces a tough road ahead. [more]
Situation Reports and Briefs
February 9, 2010 1926 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Members of the Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are meeting Feb. 10 to discuss a financial assistance package for Greece. Michael Meister, deputy leader of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag, confirmed that Berlin is working on a package for the troubled eurozone member. Greece has been getting battered by financial markets in recent months over its massive budget deficits and mounting publics debt. Investors' doubts about Greece's ability to consolidate its finances have made the cost of Greek borrowing and the cost to insure against Greek default spike -- fanning fears of a sovereign debt crisis and contagion within the eurozone. As outlined in yesterday's Geopolitical Intelligence Report, Germany was faced with a choice: let Athens sink or swim on its own, or step in before things got out of hand. It appears as though it is leaning towards the latter, especially given the reports yesterday about the nearly $8 billion-bet being made by investors against the euro. But Germany could be simply testing the waters to see how the markets and other eurozone members react. Any coordination with other EU bodies and the details of the potential German-led assistance package will likely be the main topic of discussion at the informal meeting of EU officials in Brussels on Feb. 11.
Geopolitical Weekly Free
Germany's Choice
February 8, 2010 2326 GMT
As the economic situation in Greece worsens, Germany must make a tough decision with Continent-wide implications. [more]
Security Weekly Free
Iranian Proxies: An Intricate and Active Web
New threads of information about Iran's proxy forces have recently come to light, and when the strands are tied together they make for a very interesting story. [more]
Geopolitical Diary
Turkey: Debating the U.S. Security Umbrella
Washington is looking to Turkey for help, but is finding out this is a different Turkey from the Cold War days. [more]
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