Geopolitical Diary

Russia Keeps a Wary Eye on the Trans-Caspian Pipeline

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Geopolitical Weekly
By George Friedman

On Obama and the Nature of Failed Presidencies

Global Affairs
By Robert D. Kaplan

The Realist Creed

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The Danger of Security Theater

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Pro-Russian Activity Raises Concerns in Latvia

Pro-Russian Activity Raises Concerns in Latvia

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2014

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2014

Car Bombing In Arbil Shows Strength of Kurdish Security Measures

Kurdish Security Withstands Militant Attack

Competing Ties Force Germany to Mediate in Ukraine

Competing Ties Force Germany to Mediate in Ukraine

Update on Guerrero

Mexico's Normalista Protests Threaten to Spread

How the End of 'Too Big to Fail' Will Hurt the Eurozone

How the End of 'Too Big to Fail' Will Hurt the Eurozone

Field Notes
Stratfor In The News

Paul Floyd on the Search for ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

“When militaries are dealing with enemy networks, you find that no single personality is the sole keystone of that network … taking a key personality helps you in the short run but what you need to do is consistently take out leadership," said Paul Floyd, military analyst at the global intelligence firm Stratfor.

Fox News
Featured Analyst:

Lauren Goodrich on the Remaining Options for Sanctions Against Russia

There are only three sectors that matter much to Russia's political elite—military weaponry, banking and energy—and the U.S. and Europe are hard-pressed to find new ways to penalize those industries in ways that aren't overly drastic, according to Lauren Goodrich, senior Eurasia analyst at global intelligence and advisory firm Stratfor.

Featured Analyst:

Stratfor's Tristan Reed on Fuel Theft by Mexican Drug Cartels

“Gangs are tapping into pipelines in virtually every state of Mexico that has substantial fuel traveling underground,” says Tristan Reed, Mexico security analyst with global intelligence firm Stratfor. “However, northeast organized crime groups are the chief culprits -- specifically, Los Zetas and the various Gulf Cartel gangs.”

NPR's "Here and Now"
Situation/Intelligence Reports

Iran: Nuclear Deal Deadline Could Be Extended, Officials Say

The deadline for negotiating a deal over Iran's nuclear program may be extended from Nov. 24 to March 2015, Reuters reported Nov. 20, citing unnamed officials.

Sweden: Opposition Could Block 2015 Budget

The Sweden Democrats party is considering blocking the country's draft 2015 budget proposed by the center-left governing coalition over concerns that more funding will be directed toward immigrants, Svenska Dagbladet reported Nov. 19.

Germany: Fracking Bill Prepared For Parliament

A draft bill to allow the commercial use of hydraulic fracturing — a method of natural gas extraction — is in development and should be presented to the German parliament before the end of the year, if strict environmental rules are met, FAZ reported Nov. 20.

Hungary: South Stream Only Way To Ensure Gas Supply, Leader Says

Hungary sees the Russia-backed South Stream natural gas pipeline as the only option to ensure the country's energy supply, an unnamed senior Hungarian official said, Reuters reported Nov. 19.

Egypt: Policemen Wounded In Cairo Attack

A bomb exploded near a Cairo university Nov. 20, wounding five policemen, AFP reported, citing Egyptian security officials.

Russia: Official Warns U.S. Not To Supply Weapons To Ukraine

The United States would violate international agreements and destabilize the situation if it supplied weapons to Ukrainian forces, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said, Reuters reported Nov. 20.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Gaza Militants Test Rockets

Palestinian militants in Gaza test-fired rockets into the Mediterranean Sea, AP reported Nov. 20, citing Israel Defense Forces.

Colombia: Negotiators Agree To Release General

Delegates from the Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Havana, Cuba said they will release Brig. Gen Ruben Dario Alzate, who was taken prisoner last week, under certain conditions, a statement on an official FARC website said Nov. 19.

Colombia: Fate Of General In Militant Leader's Hands, Delegates Say

The fate of Brig. Gen. Ruben Dario Alzate, who was taken prisoner by militants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is in the hands of FARC's top leader, Rodrigo Londono-Echeverry, better known as Timochenko, El Espectador reported Nov. 19, citing FARC delegates.

Afghanistan: Kabul's International Zone Attacked

Four suicide bombers launched an attack on eastern Kabul's Green Village, an international zone thought to be one of the safest areas in the city, Al Jazeera reported Nov. 19.

Iraq, Turkey: Oil Flow To Restart Following Deal With Kurds

The Iraqi government will resume oil exports to Turkey for the first time since March following last week's settlement of a dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Nov. 19, Hurriyet Daily News reported.

Israel: Violence Intensifies With Razing Of Palestinian's Home

On Nov. 19, Israel destroyed the home of Abdel-Rahman Shaloudi, a Palestinian man who ran over and killed three people in Jerusalem last month, Reuters reported.

Syria: U.S. Targets Al-Nusra, Again

The U.S.-led coalition is believed to have conducted an airstrike Nov. 19 against Harem, a town controlled by the Jabhat al-Nusra militant group, AP reported, citing activist groups.

Kenya: Police Raid Mosques, Seize Weapons

Kenyan security forces raided mosques in the city of Mombasa on Nov. 19, searching for weapons and supporters of Somalia's al Shabaab militant group, police said, AFP reported.

Libya: U.N. Announces 12-Hour Cease-Fire

Libya's warring parties have agreed to a 12-hour humanitarian cease-fire in Benghazi that will begin the morning of Nov. 19, a U.N. spokesperson announced, AP reported.

Iraq: Islamic State Bombs Arbil

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in Arbil, located in Iraqi Kurdistan, that left five dead and more than 20 injured, Shafaq News reported Nov. 19.

2014 Fourth Quarter Forecast

Stratfor's Fourth Quarter Forecast 2014