Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Nigerian Vice President Goodluck Jonathan gave a national television address on Feb. 9 in which he accepted the title of acting president, which was bestowed upon him by the country's parliament earlier in the day. The constitutionality of the resolutions by both chambers of the National Assembly is questionable; the only body in the country with the clear legal authority to mandate a temporary transfer of power from ailing President Umaru Yaradua to Jonathan is the presidential Cabinet, known as the Federal Executive Committee (FEC). Therefore the reaction to the move by Justice Minister and Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa --an FEC member who is also a staunch Yaradua supporter -- provides an insight into the prospect of Jonathan ever becoming the official acting president of Nigeria. In an interview on Feb. 9 with CNN, Aondoakaa called for the three arms of Nigeria's government to come together in support of "the vice president," adding that "the Cabinet has already, since the president left, recognized the vice president as the leader of the country pending when Mr. President returns." Aondoakaa -- and thus likely the rest of the FEC -- is willing to grant its nominal support to Jonathan as he can rest assured that the parliamentary resolutions of Feb. 9 giving him the title of acting president are not legally binding. Aondoakaa is thus hedging his bets: If Yaradua is able to return, he can say he never abandoned the president; if Yaradua does not return, he can tell Jonathan he was always behind him.