Geopolitical Diary

How History Shapes Western Attitudes Toward Immigration

Editor's Choice
Geopolitical Weekly
By George Friedman

On Obama and the Nature of Failed Presidencies

Global Affairs
By Robert D. Kaplan

The Realist Creed

Security Weekly

The Danger of Security Theater

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France's Mistral Ship Deal with Russia Stirs More Controversy

France Looks to Complete Difficult Mistral Sale

Cameron Fails By-Election Test

Cameron Fails By-Election Test

Turkey's Legacy Shapes U.S. Negotiations

U.S. Diplomacy Tries to Break Turkish Isolation

A Chronology of Canada's Energy Export Woes

A Chronology of Canada's Energy Export Plans

Pro-Russian Activity Raises Concerns in Latvia

Pro-Russian Activity Raises Concerns in Latvia

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2014

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2014

Field Notes
Stratfor In The News

Paul Floyd on the Search for ISIS Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

“When militaries are dealing with enemy networks, you find that no single personality is the sole keystone of that network … taking a key personality helps you in the short run but what you need to do is consistently take out leadership," said Paul Floyd, military analyst at the global intelligence firm Stratfor.

Fox News
Featured Analyst:

Lauren Goodrich on the Remaining Options for Sanctions Against Russia

There are only three sectors that matter much to Russia's political elite—military weaponry, banking and energy—and the U.S. and Europe are hard-pressed to find new ways to penalize those industries in ways that aren't overly drastic, according to Lauren Goodrich, senior Eurasia analyst at global intelligence and advisory firm Stratfor.

Featured Analyst:
Situation/Intelligence Reports

U.S., Iran: 'Big Gaps' Still Remain In Nuclear Talks, Secretary of State Says

Six world powers and Iran still have serious differences in position hindering a final agreement on a nuclear deal, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Nov. 22, RFE/RL reported.

Russia: West Seeks 'Regime Change' In Moscow, Foreign Minister Says

Moscow accused the West of trying to use sanctions to seek "regime change" in Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Nov. 22, Reuters reported.

Armenia: Nagorno-Karabakh Mounts Operation To Recover Pilots' Bodies

Nagorno-Karabakh forces mounted an overnight operation to recover the bodies of three Armenian helicopter pilots, Nagorno-Karabakh military officials said Nov. 22, AP reported.

China: Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates

The People's Bank of China cut interest rates Nov. 21 in order to support small and medium-sized enterprises struggling to access credit, Chinese bank officials said, Reuters reported Nov. 22.

Guinea: WHO Declares Ebola Crisis Stable

The Ebola outbreak has stabilized in Guinea, where the crisis began, the World Health Organization said, BBC reported.

U.S.: Washington Increases Aid For Refugees

The United States pledged an additional $135 million in aid for refugees of the Syrian civil war on Nov. 22, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's office said in a statement, Reuters reported.

Kenya: Al Shabaab Militants Attack Bus, Kill 28

Gunmen from the Somali militant group al Shabaab attacked a bus in northern Kenya, killing 28 people, the group said in a statement, BBC reported.

Colombia: FARC To Release General Next Week, President Says

The Revolutionary Forces of Colombia will release Brig. Gen. Ruben Dario Alzate next week, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said on Twitter Nov. 22, AFP reported.

China: 6.3 Earthquake Hits Southwest Province

A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck China's southwest Sichuan Province on Nov. 22, the China Earthquake Networks Center said, Xinhuanet reported.

U.S.: Military Expands 2015 Combat Role In Afghanistan

U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan after 2014 will be allowed to target Taliban fighters directly threatening coalition forces, U.S. officials said Nov. 22, BBC reported.

Japan: 6.8 Earthquake Hits Inland

A 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck central Japan on Nov. 22, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, ABC News reported.

Bahrain: Shiite Groups Boycott Elections

Shiite opposition groups boycotted parliamentary elections in Bahrain on Nov. 22, government officials said, BBC reported.

Iran: Foreign Minister To Continue Negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will stay in Vienna to continue negotiations over Iran's nuclear program instead of returning to Tehran for consultations, as was previously planned, RIA Novosti reported Nov. 21, citing an unnamed Iranian source.

Ukraine: 5 Parties Form Ruling Coalition

Five Ukrainian parties have joined together to form a ruling coalition after two weeks of negotiations, Itar-Tass reported Nov. 21.

Israel: Energy Minister Pitches Natural Gas Pipeline Project To Europe

Israel has proposed that EU countries invest in a multibillion-dollar natural gas pipeline to reduce Europe's current dependence on Russian supply by purchasing from Israel, Times of Israel reported Nov. 20.

Pakistan: U.S. Drone Strike Kills 6

A U.S. drone strike killed six suspected militants in northwestern Pakistan, Reuters reported Nov. 21, citing security officials.

2014 Fourth Quarter Forecast

Stratfor's Fourth Quarter Forecast 2014