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Red Alert: Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol

Stratfor has declared a Red Alert over Ukraine as we watch for signs of a new offensive. We do not yet know Russia’s strategic intentions. Reports of rocket fire and potential moves on the city of Mariupol could simply be an attempt to signal the danger Russia could pose to their negotiating partners in the West. It could be an attempt to extend the pocket separatists supported by Russia currently hold in eastern Ukraine. It could, finally, be the opening of an offensive toward Crimea.

India Prepares for Obama's Upcoming Visit

Despite India's request for more U.S. support, Obama's visit will not fundamentally alter New Delhi's relationship with Washington or its allies.

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Stratfor In The News
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Kamran Bokhari on Sectarian Chaos in Yemen

"... effectively the Houthis are kingmakers. While they do not dominate Yemen, they control the largest piece of real estate and they are the single-largest group," said Kamran Bokhari, an adviser on Middle Eastern and South Asian Affairs for Stratfor.

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Fred Burton on Europe's Terrorist Threat

Live interview with Stratfor's vice president of intelligence on "Shepard Smith Reporting" to provide commentary on the terrorist threat facing Europe in the wake of the recent Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris.

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Situation/Intelligence Reports

India: Deal On Nuclear Energy Reached With United States

India and the United States have reached a deal on nuclear trade, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced Jan. 25, Reuters reported.

Ukraine: Leaders React To Recent Fighting

Russia is ready to push for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in a Jan. 25 phone call, a statement from Russia's foreign ministry said, Reuters reported.

Nigeria: Boko Haram Attacks Cities Of Maiduguri, Monguno

Boko Haram militants attacked the city of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state in northwest Nigeria, on Jan. 25, Reuters reported.

Venezuela: Opposition March Stops After Police Scuffle

Several thousand opposition supporters marched in Caracas on Jan. 24 but stopped prematurely after scuffles broke out between police and students, opposition leaders said, Bloomberg reported.

Iraq: Kurdish Forces Fire Rockets Into Mosul

Kurdish forces fired rockets at Islamic State militants in the northern city of Mosul, Iraq, Kurdish military sources said Jan. 24, Reuters reported.

Yemen: Southern Movement Seizes Parts Of Southern Cities

Southern Movement gunmen seized six checkpoints in Ataq, the capital of Shabwa province, southern Yemen, on Jan. 24, witnesses said, AFP reported.

Ukraine: President Condemns Shelling Of Mariupol

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko condemned the shelling of Mariupol on Jan. 24 after abruptly ending a trip to Saudi Arabia to return to Ukraine, the president said, UNIAN reported.

Japan: Islamic State Purportedly Executes One Japanese Hostage

A video released Jan. 24 purported to show the execution of of Haruna Yukawa, one of two Japanese nationals held captive by the Islamic State, a watchdog of extremist groups said, Newsweek reported.

Ukraine: Separatists Begin Offensive On Mariupol

A pro-Russia separatist offensive on the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, began on Jan. 24, the head of the self-proclaimed Dontesk People's Republic said, RIA Novosti reported.

Yemen: Thousands Protest Against Al-Houthi Militias In Sanaa

Up to 10,000 Yemenis marched in Sanaa on Jan. 24 in opposition to al-Houthi militias' control of the capital, witnesses said, Reuters reported.

Ukraine: Shelling In Mariupol Kills 15

Rockets struck a residential area in Mariupol, southern Ukraine, killing 15 people and wounding 46, the Interior Ministry's press service said Jan. 24, AFP reported.

Ukraine: Rebels Reject Peace Deal, Again

Pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine rejected the September peace-deal with the Ukrainian government and announced a new offensive against Ukrainian government forces Jan. 23, AP reported.

Iraq: Islamic State Dead Returned To Mosul

The bodies of around 120 Islamic State militants killed in recent fighting were transported Jan. 23 to a hospital in Mosul, northern Iraq, Anadolu reported, citing Iraqi peshmerga.

Moldova: Minority Parties Form Ruling Coalition

Two pro-Western parties have agreed to form a minority government in Moldova following months of negotiations, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty reported Jan. 23.

Egypt: Protester Allegedly Killed By Security Forces

Egypt's Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim brotherhood, accused security forces of shooting 17-year-old Sondos Rida Abu Bakr during a demonstration in Alexandria on Jan. 23, World Bulletin reported.

Yemen: Lawmakers Push Back Emergency Meeting

The earliest Yemen's parliament could meet to discuss Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi's offer to resign would be Jan. 25, presidential adviser Sultan al-Atwani said, AFP reported Jan. 23.

Tunisia: Government Is Formed, Awaits Approval

Tunisia's candidate for prime minister, Habib Essid, announced Jan. 23 that he had formed his new government after talks with secular parties, including Nidaa Tounes, Reuters reported.

Russia: Parliament Approves Joint Military Command With Breakaway Region

The Russian parliament has ratified a military agreement with Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia, AP reported Jan. 23.


Annual Forecast 2015

Oil markets, economic stagnation in China and Europe, and Russia's struggle to maintain a buffer zone in its periphery will drive global events in 2015.