Geopolitical Diary

Mainstream Parties Tread on Thin Ice in Europe's Periphery

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By George Friedman

The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East

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By Robert D. Kaplan

The Realist Creed

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The Danger of Security Theater

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Analysis
Ambitious European Investment Fund Unveiled

Ambitious European Investment Fund Unveiled

North Korean Talks Revive Russia's Pacific Push

North Korean Talks Revive Russia's Pacific Push

Protesters hold flags and placards during a rally in front of the parliament building in Budapest on Nov.17.

In Central Europe, Governments Are Caught in the Middle

Russia Suspends Coal Exports to Ukraine

Russia Suspends Coal Exports to Ukraine

Strategic Reversal: The United States, Iran, and the Middle East

Strategic Reversal: The United States, Iran, and the Middle East

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Serbia's Balance Becomes Harder to Maintain

Serbia's Balance Becomes Harder to Maintain

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Field Notes
Stratfor In The News
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Stratfor's Reva Bhalla on the U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

“Rouhani has been facing rising dissent, not just from the traditional IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] camp, but from a large segment of the public that is growing disillusioned with his policy because they’re not seeing the level of economic relief they were promised,” said Reva Bhalla, the vice president of global analysis at the geopolitical intelligence firm, Stratfor.

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Syria: Damascus Shares Intelligence with Washington

The United States will avoid overt cooperation with Damascus but will use its relationships in the Middle East to focus its mission against the Islamic State.

Cameroon: Military Frees 16 Hostages From FDPC Militants

Cameroon's military freed 16 hostages, among them a Polish priest, from Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC) militants, the government announced Nov. 26, News24 reported.

Qatar: Training Syrian Rebels With U.S. Help

The Qatari military, with help from the United States, is covertly training moderate Syrian rebels to fight the Islamic State and Syrian government forces, Reuters reported Nov. 26.

Colombia: FARC To Release General, President Confirms

Rebels fighting for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will release Brig. Gen. Ruben Dario Alzate on Nov. 29, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos confirmed, LA F.M. reported Nov. 26.

Ukraine: Russia Unlikely To Send Peacekeepers, U.N. Envoy Says

Russia is unlikely to send peacekeepers to Ukraine in response to a request by the self proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Russia's U.N. envoy Vitaly Churkin said Nov. 26, Itar-Tass reported.

Venezuela: Foreign Currency Distribution Network Stopped, Report Says

One of Venezuela's mechanisms to sell foreign currency to firms that request it, the Sicad 1, has not had an auction in since Oct. 14, when it dispersed some $550 million, Ultima Noticias reported Nov. 26.

France: Hollande To Sign Arms Deals With Egypt

French President Francois Hollande is set to sign military cooperation deals with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, including a 1 billion euros contract to sell four Gowind warships to the Egyptian navy, Anadolu Agency reported Nov. 26.

Yemen: Blast Halts Oil Flow

Oil exports on the Red Sea coast came to a stop after armed tribesmen blew up a section of Yemen's Marib pipeline, the country's main oil pipeline, officials said Nov. 26, AFP reported.

Libya: Rival Government Wants To Attend Oil Meeting

Both Libya's internationally recognized government and a rival government want to attend the Nov. 27 OPEC meeting in Vienna, Reuters reported Nov. 26.

EU: New Investment Plan Unveiled

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker presented an investment plan to help spur the economy, EU Business reported Nov. 26.

U.S.: Army To Station Tanks In Eastern Europe

The U.S. Army plans to station some 150 tanks and armored vehicles in NATO countries in eastern Europe next year, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges said, AFP reported Nov. 26.

Madagascar: Plague Kills 47 As Outbreak Spreads To Capital

Madagascar is battling to contain an outbreak of a plague, which was first identified in August, and has killed 47 people, AFP reported Nov. 26.

Venezuela: ConocoPhillips Accuses Venezuela Of Impropriety

In a pre-suit discovery court filing Nov. 25, ConocoPhillips subsidiary ConocoPhillips Petrozuata accused Venezuela of trying to sell state owned oil firm Citgo Petroleum Corp, or Citgo, to avoid paying a billion-dollar arbitration award, Courthouse News reported.

Nigeria: Twin Bombings Kill 34 In Maiduguri

Two suicide bombs went off almost simultaneously in the International Market area of Maiduguri, Nigeria, killing 34 people in what was believed to be an attack by Boko Haram, Anadolu Agency reported Nov. 25.

Libya: Tripoli Airport Bombed, Again

Libya's internationally recognized government has bombed Tripoli's Mitiga airport, which is controlled by a rival government, Reuters reported Nov. 25.

Colombia: FARC Releases 2 Hostages, General Still Captive

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known by its acronym, FARC, released two Colombian soldiers it was holding hostage, according to a Nov. 25 update from Colombia Reports.

Forecasts
2014 Fourth Quarter Forecast

Stratfor's Fourth Quarter Forecast 2014